PROPOSAL FOR NIE ON "NEW COURSE IN SOVIET POLICY"

Created: 2/17/1956

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SE^ET

INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

6

MKTOTiHDl.'H rOR: Mr. Allan Evaii3 (OEl)

Colonel K. J. LorJey,SA (AC/SI) Captain B.Cfll) Colonel Willis B. Sawyer, 1SAFolonel Charlesuff,SA (JIG)

Proposal for HIE onourse In Soviot Policy"

1. In view of the nany dovclop-.cn ts in Soviot policy sincewrote nn 1ITE on the subject, tbe Board ofew cstlr.itlve look at the pro^i'vc vould bo Wohort national estlmtodomestic and foreign policy developments usonorolc offt-nsivo in Asia, tho nev Five Year20th Party Confess, tho Bulganin letters,ndtho USSR seems to bo headed. Cur success Inst yearimilar brief treatment would be

useful.

2, Curor sug&;Btingiper at thisnro:

present we have no current estipwtcs regardingof hiehly significant Sovietthe new "trade and aid" offensive. only current intelligence covcrngc has beenthie.

VI : FOP DATE;7

brief ODtinato of the typo sug^cutcd uould'bopreliminary to the big Soviotubstituto for on iHR of this typo. thinking about current trends inton-Is to ipt buried in the annual Sovietincludes all sorts of other isaturinl, Iforocvor,

a brlof NJE ofypeore floxiblo vchiclo fcr tho typov r. wc fanvt in mind. Tho foot Uiot tho big Soviet pnporIvo year projection Bokofl it aifficult to dovoto mich attention In it to sh-.rt tern trends, Ve nl'jnys hove to nrguo tho question of whethor any trends posited willhe full flvu years,

e, Wo fenl Inoo that fronstandpoint of lnpnct on tho render, as well no enso ofvo should not roly too nuch cn coveringin depth in ono big annual Sovlot NIE. Uo con cover tho field better if wo doin tho way of Doponte brief cstinotcs on Jccy asructs of tho Soviet prohltra aa tho occr.nlon Thooo enn of course be surrvirizcd as npprorrlntoc big cotirete.

3, If tlvo nbovoion is npprovsd, uo propose Initiating such nn KIE rrt-nptly* cn tho basis of ornl contributions, for car>-plction no later than tho end of April, This schodulomit us tothis ostimto out of tho way lxforo wo get fully engaged in draftingbig florist VIB,

'. In crdor topecialugncst' Shnt you or your represent aUvo discuss this propoeal wilh Hr. Kent, in hla office, inrodiatcly after tho IAC nesting Tuesday,.

PAUL A. UUiKL

Deputy Assistant Hirector

H.-itirnal Eotlnatcs

Distribution "B"

COKf

THEK STATE

Washington

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Dear Allen:

In view of tho intense Interest at present in the new Soviet ocon-:mlc diplomacy in underdeveloped countries( especially of Asia, we would like tp proposeati-nal Ictcllii;once estimate on this subject be undertaken shortly araInst an early completion date*

As you know, the President has asked Mr.o havo tho Council en Economic Foreign ielicy coordinate such policy fcrnulati'n and action as rviy be indicated in connect!with Soviet initiatives In this field. Mr.as asked for aof what the Ct-Jiunistsos well a3 for the regular preparation of periodical {probably frrtni/htly) reportsurrent dovulo;;meats,

Tho Department of Stato believes, however, that foreim policy decisions in this matter require moreactual ccm-pllation of whatieta aro, and hive been, Tho sijjniflcanco of their recent actions, we bclievft, must be evaluatedar larger context, if reliable inferences are to bo drawn as to Soviet intentions and motivations, the probable extent to which these new policies can atxl will bo eirricd, and the effectiveness they nay be exacted to have.

Such an appraisal will require an integrated analysisSoviet capabilities to supply both capital equip-rxntgeods, ns wello absorb raw material and(b) Sovietn underdeveloped and formerand (c) tho vulnerabilities of these areas to Sovietthrough uconrlc relationships. Clearlynotopicslend of political

It is therefore our opinion that the complexity UK) variety nf the problem calloordinated national estimate.

Will you bo Rood enough to arrange for the IAC to consider this prnjosal at an early mcctirtf.

W. Parkr,

Sincerely yrurs, /s/ W.STKOHC, Jr.

TheW. ,

Director of Central

Original document.

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